Global glacier crisis: Melting ice inevitable?Ice, ice, maybe?
- Apr 21
- 2 min read
Glaciers are shrinking, and for many, the damage may already be irreversible. A new study published at the end of May 2025 found that even if global temperatures stopped rising today, nearly 40% of the remaining glacier mass will still melt.
Just a day before the study was published, a collapsing glacier engulfed the Swiss village of Blatten, highlighting the real-world consequences of melting ice.
The research, involving 21 scientists from 10 countries, is part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. Using eight glacier models, the team simulated the future of over 200 000 glaciers, excluding those in Greenland and Antarctica. The findings show that the 1.2°C of global warming already experienced since pre-industrial times has locked in long-term glacier loss, as ice responds slowly to temperature changes.
The study found that every additional 0.1°C of warming causes a further 2 to 2.7% loss in glacier mass. However, limiting warming to 1.5°C, the target set by the Paris Agreement, could preserve more than half of the remaining glacier ice.
“Every fraction of a degree is pivotal. Our choices in emission reductions will define whether hundreds of thousands of glaciers endure or descend towards irreversible decline,” explained Dr Harry Zekollari from Vrije Universiteit Brussel.
Because glaciers react slowly, the impact of current emissions will continue for centuries. Dr Lilian Schuster of the University of Innsbruck explained that glaciers are among the most visible indicators of shifting climate regimes, that their current dimensions conceal an even more dire future state.
The study also revealed that glaciers have lost around 5% of their total volume since 2000. When comparing 2000–2011 and 2012–2023, annual ice loss increased by more than 36%. Beyond rising sea levels, melting glaciers threaten water security, increase natural hazards such as landslides and floods, and undermine local economies.
Professor Ben Marzeion of the University of Bremen, a contributor to the research, said: “The future of glaciers extends over centuries, influenced decisively by decisions made today.”
Even if emissions stopped today, significant glacier loss is inevitable. Limiting warming to 1.5°C could preserve much of what remains, showing the choices made today still matter.
We originally published this article in the fourth edition of ThisWildEarth. Find more of our publications here.
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